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Friday, 29 November 2013

Market Overview: Telecoms and Mobile Market Research On New Zealand and Australia - 2014

BuddeComm estimates that the overall telecoms services revenue passed was about $42.5 billion in 2013, slightly down on 2012 as a result of lower revenue from Vodafone and Optus. Indeed, growth has been subdued since 2011, largely due to competitive pressure on pricing among operators, as well as continuing economic uncertainty among some sectors of society which has lessened discretionary spend. This is expected to continue into 2014 and 2015, with revenue either stagnating all together or only slightly growing to about 1-1.5% annually. Most fixed-line and mobile voice services are now at levels where consumers would not tolerate price increases, so opportunities to drive increases in consumer and business expenditure in the short term are limited to mobile data services based on 4G/Long-term Evolution (LTE) technologies, fibre, and cloud-data housing.

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At the same time as fixed-line telephony is declining, the mobile broadband market is growing steadily and is set to become a major income revenue stream for providers. Nevertheless, mobile broadband data revenue growth will be far short of the growth anticipated from mobile broadband data on networks. While mobile voice remains the dominant source of revenue for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), it will soon be overtaken by mobile data revenue. In time, much of the voice traffic will be data packet via technologies such as Voice over Long-term Evolution (VoLTE). Data traffic caused network constraints on 3G networks over the last couple of years, since the infrastructure was not designed for the rapid increase of traffic, and so MNOs have had to invest in network upgrades to ensure that customers receive a reliable service.

The release of 4G/LTE mobile broadband and increased uptake by consumers and businesses will certainly ease the issue in the short term, but as user uptake increases so will the amount of bandwidth consumed. Mobile data usage increased by nearly 80% year-on-year to mid-2012 with nearly seven terabytes downloaded over the air in a three-month period.

The 2nd tier market

Developments in this market have been dominated by industry consolidation, a process that is set to continue over coming years. Moving towards a structurally separated regulatory environment with a NBN at the horizon, size really does matter.

The other important development has been Telstra’s aggressive activities to increase its market share, particularly in the mobile and broadband sectors. This has been detrimental to a number of 2nd tier players, as has been reflected in their declining revenue in 2013. Nevertheless, there was an overall recovery in total revenue among these players in 2013, reflecting the benefits of scale brought about by market consolidation. Overall revenue for these operators, of about $3.9 billion, still accounts for less than 10% of the total telecoms market in Australia, New Zealand.


The NBN will become the predominant infrastructure, and as a utilities-based network it will also provide its services to other sectors, such as healthcare, education and business. With these sectors involved we will see the industry developing specific new business models around infrastructure, ICT and retail. IPTV and other media and entertainment applications will also begin to play a more important role. The question remains – how successful will the telcos be in retail space?

With the uncertainty over the NBN a key concern moving forward is how far operators should invest in DSLAM infrastructure: the National Broadband Network (NBN) structure initially would have rendered DSLAMs obsolete with Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) networks in place. However, with the NBN under a strategic review, and with the Coalition government determined to promote a Fibre-to-the-Node (FttN) architecture, supplemented by copper-based VDSL technologies, the transition from DSL to fibre-based infrastructure is likely to be on a far smaller scale.

Mobile Market

Overall mobile services revenue growth by the MNOs over the last financial year has fallen year-on-year. We should expect to see slower revenue growth from Telstra and Optus into 2014, with revenue again negative for Vodafone. While the issues that saw Vodafone revenues slide are unique, the company will continue to be affected by the loss of subscribers, price competitiveness and the cost of investing in infrastructure as it struggles to compete in the LTE-arena.

The number of mobile subscribers continues to grow steadily, and by mid-2013 mobile penetration had reached more than 130% as a significant proportion of subscribers make use of multiple phones or SIM cards. While growth is likely to continue in the next few years in as subscribers take to smartphones, this will slow in line with higher penetration, being about 2% into 2014.

Table of Contents

1. Telecoms Market moving into 2014
1.1 The rapidly shrinking traditional telecoms market
1.2 The Cloud Computing Revolution
1.3 The Changing Data Centre Landscape
1.4 The rapid growth of regional secondary data centres
1.5 M2M and the Internet of Things

2. Market and Industry Statistics
2.1 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market – By Provider
2.1.1 Total telecommunications services market
2.1.2 Telstra
2.1.3 Optus
2.1.4 Vodafone Hutchison Australia, New Zealand
2.1.5 Capital expenditure
2.2 Statistical Overview of the Telecoms Market – By Service

3. National Broadband Network – Surveys, Statistics and Forecasts
3.1 Market Surveys
3.1.1 FTTN modelling results
3.1.2 NBN speeds over 25Mbps
3.1.3 Broadband benefits for households
3.1.4 Poll prefers FttP plan above FttN plan
3.1.5 Support for fast broadband via an NBN
3.1.6 Customers prepared to pay for higher speeds

4. Broadband Market
4.1 DSL Market
4.1.1 Brief overview of the NBN
4.1.2 Regulatory environment – analysis
4.1.3 DSL infrastructure
4.1.4 Brief overview of broadband providers market
4.2 Business Market
4.2.1 Market trends

5. Mobile Communications Market
5.1 Revenue Overview
5.1.1 Statistical sources
5.1.2 Total mobile services revenue and forecasts
5.1.3 Operator revenue statistics overview
5.1.4 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
5.2 Subscriber Statistics

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